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MENA power generation to go up sharply by 2015

Saudi Arabia to account for 16.8% of regional power generation by 2015

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BMI forecasts an increase in regional power generation to 1,518TWh by 2015.
BMI forecasts an increase in regional power generation to 1,518TWh by 2015.

The MENA power generation estimate for 2010 was 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4% over the previous year, when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown, according to a new BMI report quoted by Construction Week.

MENA thermal power generation in 2010 was estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region.

“We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period,” said BMI.

Saudi Arabia will account for 16.8% of MENA regional power generation by 2015, BMI said in its Saudi Arabia Power Report Q1 2011.

Saudi Arabia's thermal generation forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015, which slightly reduces the market share of thermal generation to 90.8%, due in part to environmental concerns which have led to the promotion of renewables, hydroelectricity and nuclear generation.

The Kingdom's thermal generation in 2010 was estimated at 213TWh, or 18.69% of the regional total. By 2015, the Kingdom is expected to account for 18.51% of thermal generation.

Oil was the dominant fuel for Saudi Arabia in 2010, accounting for an estimated 65% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 35%.

Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. Saudi Arabia's estimated 2010 market share of 21.64% is set to ease to 21.08% by 2015.

BMI forecast real GDP growth averaging 3.15% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with the 2011 growth assumption being 2.50%. The population is expected to expand from 26.0million to 28.6million over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 25% and 9% respectively.

The Kingdom's power consumption was expected to increase from an estimated 176TWh in 2010 to 211TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a balanced market after system losses etc., assuming 3.6% average annual growth (2010-2015) in electricity generation.

Between 2010 and 2020, BMI forecast an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 56.2%, which is near the middle of the range for the MENA region.

"This equates to 30.5% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 19.7% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to increase from 17.6% in 2010-2015 to 22.5%, representing 44.1% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 56% between 2010 and 2020,” stated the report.

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