Iran's lonely walk down the nuclear path

The Bushehr nuclear reactor is due to come online in September.

Vicious circle

While a military strike thus seems doubtful, the fourth round of sanctions imposed on Iran by the United Nations in June are real.
One of the prime considerations of the sanctions was avoiding the mistakes of the UN sanctions against neighbouring Iraq in the 1900s, which not only failed to destablise Saddam Hussein’s rule, but arguably strengthened his grip on power.

Consequently, the sanctions are far more tailored, and are a thorn in side of the regime. “They are quite crippling but not in an immediate way, which I think makes a lot of people say the they aren’t working,” says Ciszuk. “But they are crippling, because the oil and gas industry has very big problems to get hold of modern technologies, and the Iranian oil and gas sector is aging, they do need a lot of enhanced oil recovery techniques, which raise production from mature and declining oil fields.”

As the provision of cheap energy to the population is the economic foundation for the regime to survive, and a rapprochement with the west seems incompatible with its beliefs, the sanctions in many ways strengthen the case for continuing to go down the nuclear route in the mullah’s eyes.

“They are struggling to get enough gas onstream, and have to prioritise between sending it to power plants and using it for oil production. That is creating a vicious circle, and forces a rationale for nuclear power plants,” concludes Ciszuk.

With the regime strengthened again after crushing the reformist movement in the wake of last year’s contentious election, tensions in the region are not likely to ease off any time soon.

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