Nuclear ambitions

Delays in the construction of the European Pressurised Reactor at the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear plant in Finland undermined the French bid to build the nucl

He points out that EDF was initially not willing to commit to operating the plant. This turned out to be a serious strategic blunder in the bargaining process, as the emirate was not interested in running the plants itself, and has effectively outsourced the nuclear project to the Koreans. EDF did change its stance later on, but it was too little, too late.

By being the first to go nuclear in the Middle East, Abu Dhabi has certainly been getting a lot of attention on the international stage, as well as envious glances from its neighbours.

These are, however, not likely to follow the blueprint for nuclear development set out by the emirate. “I don’t think the other countries will necessarily follow the UAE template of outsourcing everything, I know for example that other countries are hoping to develop their own human resources base,” says Rogner. He believes that while aspiring countries will very likely make use of outside help initially, they will aim to develop their own expertise, run their programmes independently of a foreign operator.

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Whose next?
And which Middle Eastern country will be the next to step into Abu Dhabi’s footsteps and commit to nuclear energy? Jordan and Egypt are the Arab states that have so far made the most progress in developing their programmes.

In November, Australia’s WorleyParsons was appointed to carry out a feasibility study for Jordan’s first 1,000MW nuclear reactor, to be built near the port of Aqaba. Shortly afterwards the government awared a US$173m contract for a nuclear research reactor to the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and Daewoo Engineering & Construction.

WorleyParsons is also advising Egypt on its plan to build a 1,200MW reactor. During the next eight years, the firm will chose the site and the technology, as well as oversee the construction and the start-up of the plant.

In May, Russia’s energy minister Sergei Shamtko admitted that Russia may help Syria built an nuclear power plant. His comments came after Russian president Dmitry Medvedev put the prospect of nuclear cooperation on the table during his visit to Damascus.

Russia’s move will have caused consternation amongst Western governments, who fear that Syria harbours ambitions to enrich plutonium for military use. In 2007, the Israeli airforce destroyed what the US said was a nascent plutonium-producing reactor.

Iran, has been developing is nuclear programme for years, and may be have its Bushehr plant coming online within months , if statements made by Iranian and Russian officials are to be believed.

In the GCC, Kuwait is a likely frontrunner, having signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the France after another, and this time more rewarding visit to the region by Sarkozy. The MoU will go a long way in overcoming Gallic gloom over the UAE debacle, and more or less guarantees the involvement of French companies in future Kuwaiti nuclear projects.

As of yet, no timeline for the development of nuclear capacity has been revealed by the kingdom. A set of studies on the viability and cost of a nuclear energy project in Kuwait will be ready for decision makers by early 2011, however.

Work to do
The countries seeking to join the nuclear age clearly have work to do to. “Key challenges are the lack of infrastructure, and by that I mean soft infrastructure such a nuclear law, human resources, independent regulators, education, all these aspects,” Rogner identifies the main hurdles.

Furthermore, time delays can arise from the need to adhere to international conventions. “As soon as laywers get involved, it doesn’t speed up the process.”

Another problem that has been flagged up is that of grid capacity. Most of the countries in the Middle East currently have small grids, which would cause difficulties if a nuclear plant with significant output came online. “The largest unit on the grid should an output of no more than 10 percent of grid capacity,” says Rogner. “So you put in a 1,700MW --reactor online, than you should have a 17GW grid, which most countries don’t have.”

Due to the enormous electricity growth rates of countries in the Middle East, grid capacity will probably have caught up by the time the first reactors come online. “Current demand growth rates are roughly doubling every 10 years. If that continues, most of the countries will be there, or in that order anyway,” says Rogner.

Rogner stresses that the IAEA is there to help countries overcome their teething problems and ensure a smooth transition into the nuclear age. “We as the agency stand ready to help those countries to do it right. Of course we are not a police agency , but if member states want to know how to do it best, we are there to help.”

Lastly, Rogner emphasises that nuclear energy needs total commitment to the cause. “We want to make them understand that this is a long term commitment. Once you’re in, you’re in.”