Power Gen: Fastest growing energy user to 2030

Nuclear and renewables will grow to take a larger slice of the energy fuel mix to 2030. (GETTY IMAGES)

Global energy demand will continue to grow over the next twenty years, albeit at a slowing annual rate, fuelled by economic and population growth in non-OECD countries. Increased energy efficiency and strong growth for renewable energy are also forecast in BP’s latest Energy Outlook 2030, which is published today.

Global energy demand is likely to grow by 39 per cent by 2030, or 1.6 per cent annually, almost entirely in non-OECD countries; consumption in OECD countries is expected to rise by just 4 per cent in total over the period. Global energy will remain dominated by fossil fuels, which are forecast to account for 81 per cent of global energy demand by 2030, BP forecasts, down about 6 per cent from current levels. The period should also see increased fuel-switching, with more gas and renewables use at the expense of coal and oil.

That gradual switching should see renewables, including biofuels, continue to be the fastest growing sources of energy globally, rising at an annual clip of more than 8 per cent, much quicker even than natural gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel at about 2 per cent a year over the period to 2030.

Presenting the 2030 Energy Outlook, BP chief executive Bob Dudley said: “This report is by turns challenging, fascinating and stimulating for anyone in the energy business. It helps us to be both realistic and optimistic. It shows there are things we can’t change - like the underlying drivers of energy demand - and things we can change – like the way we satisfy that demand.

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“The main message is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and thereby maximises efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future,” he added.

BP chief economist Christof Rühl argues that the impact of globalisation and competition will continue to deliver a remarkable convergence in energy intensity around the world, a measure of energy use per unit of national economic output.

The growth of unconventional supply, including US shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands, and Brazilian deepwaters, against a background of a gradual decline in oil demand, will see the Western Hemisphere become almost totally energy self-sufficient by 2030. This means that growth in the rest of the world, principally Asia, will depend increasingly on the Middle East in particular for its growing oil requirements.

Oil, the world’s leading fuel today, will continue to lose market share throughout the period although demand for hydrocarbon liquids will still reach 103 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2030, up by 18 per cent from 2010. This means the world will still need to bring on enough liquids - oil, biofuels and others - to meet that forecast 16 million b/d of extra demand by 2030 and replace declining output from existing sources.

While coal is expected to continue gaining market share in the current decade, growth will wane in the 2020-30 decade; gas growth will remain steady and non-fossil fuels are likely to contribute nearly half of the growth after 2020.